Win Probability Calculator

Game State

1st 2nd 3rd 4th
OT1st -3pts SD

Own Opponent's

Offense kicked off in 1st half?
Yes No Don't know


Welcome to the Win Probability Calculator. WP estimates are based on a true non-parametric modeling of the NFL game, based on actual game situations and real game results.

Score difference is relative to team with possession. (Offense score − defense score)

The Period input includes the 4 quarters of regulation time, plus the 3 possible overtime game states. OT1st refers to the 1st possession of OT. -3pts refers to the situation following a 1st-drive FG. SD refers to sudden death.

Pre-game WP is an estimate of how likely the team on offense was to win the game, which represents relative team strength. The resulting 'Adjusted WP' reflects this input.

Win probability estimates will be for the team on offense.